Japan is set to fall from its current position as the world’s fourth-largest economy to sixth place by 2027, as India and the United Kingdom are projected to surpass it in terms of nominal gross domestic product (GDP), according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF’s estimates indicate that Japan’s nominal GDP will reach $4.34 trillion in 2026 and increase slightly to $4.47 trillion in 2027. This decline in ranking is attributed to the yen’s weakness against the US dollar and Japan’s sluggish economic growth.
India is on track to become the fourth-largest economy globally, with its nominal GDP expected to hit $4.52 trillion in 2027. The IMF forecasts a robust growth rate for India, with its economy projected to expand by 7% annually on a fiscal-year basis for both 2026 and 2027. This growth is anticipated to be driven by strong domestic demand and a vibrant services sector.
The United Kingdom is also expected to overtake Japan, with its GDP projected to reach around $4.49 trillion in 2027. The UK’s economic growth is forecast at 1.3% for 2026 and slightly lower at 1.2% in 2027, according to the IMF’s estimates.
Historically, Japan held the position of the world’s second-largest economy for many years before being overtaken by China in 2010 and later by Germany in 2023. These shifts highlight the dynamic changes in the global economic landscape, with India emerging as a significant player.
The IMF’s latest projections underscore the shifting balance among the world’s largest economies, emphasizing India’s growing economic influence on the global stage. Meanwhile, Japan faces challenges in maintaining its economic position amid currency fluctuations and modest growth rates.
