As the current government shutdown deepens, it’s worth looking back at the echoes of the past to see how this crisis compares to previous ones. While every shutdown has its unique political context, the current stalemate, reinforced by the Senate’s failed votes on Wednesday, shares many characteristics with its predecessors while also presenting new and dangerous wrinkles.
Like the shutdowns of 2013 and 2018-2019, this one is driven by a fierce ideological battle over a key policy issue—in this case, the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which was also at the center of the 2013 standoff. This shows the enduring power of healthcare policy to trigger fundamental political crises.
However, the current level of partisan animosity and the rhetoric being used, such as Speaker Johnson’s “communist” accusations, feels more extreme than in the past. This suggests a further erosion of the norms of political discourse, which could make finding a resolution even more difficult.
Another key difference is the context of the House leadership. Speaker Johnson is a relatively new and untested leader, and his hardline strategy may be, in part, an effort to consolidate his power and prove his conservative credentials to his often-fractious conference.
While all shutdowns cause disruption, the current strain on the aviation system and the imminent threat to military pay seem particularly acute. This may be a sign that the underlying federal systems are more fragile than they were during previous crises. The 2019 law guaranteeing back pay, however, is one positive development from past shutdowns that provides some security for workers, despite the White House’s recent attempt to question it.
